Taliban 60 Miles From Pakistan Capital, Collapse Of Country May Be Imminent

Governments around the world are becoming concerned that the Pakistani capital Islamabad and the entire country will fall into Taliban hands.

This is a nightmare scenario that as far back as two years ago, many would have said impossible, that it could never happen.

However it seems the Pakistani civilian government seems almost blind to the threat, or worse yet almost seemingly welcoming the coming takeover by the Taliban.

In the past, which was only months ago, the new Pakistani government allowed for the Taliban control over the Swat valley under a peace agreement. However once the Taliban moved in and secured the area, the continued attacks against Pakistani police forces and are now approximately 60 miles from the capital.

I'm not sure if it will be months or years, but it looks to me that without NATO, or U.S. intervention which seems unlikely that Pakistan will fall into Taliban hands, and rule.

Recently the militants attacked a NATO convoy of tankers carrying fuel. Please see the AP video below and take note of what Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says:

Here is another video on the topic from The New York Times:

Interesting News clip from France TV station:

I have written before about this see the posts here:

Taliban Make Comeback Inside Pakistan, Shari'a Law Imposed

Pakistan Near Collapse, Nukes Will Fall Into Terrorist Hands

Man From Staten Island Goes To Prison For Helping Terror Group

A man from Staten Island, NY (my home town) has been sentenced to 69 months in prison after helping people get broadcasts from Hezbollah's television station which also showed recruitment ads for anti-Israeli suicide bombers and propaganda.

Javed Iqbal -- a Pakistani national, was sentenced after admitting he provided material aid to a terrorist organization.

Mexican Swine Flu Epidemic Sparks Concerns In United States, And Canada

An outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico has infected nearly 600 people and approximately 61 people have died as of this posting from the deadly virus.

There are also reports of 7 people infected within the United States in California (5) and Texas (2) from Swine Flu as well.

One major source of concern was that the virus included strains from different types of flu.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the virus in the United States was a never-before-seen mixture of viruses typical among pigs, birds and humans. All seven American patients have recovered.

According to Dave Daigle, spokesperson for the CDC, "This is the first time that we've seen an avian strain, two swine strains and a human strain."

Mexico has canceled school for millions of children in Mexico City and has warned people to avoid shaking hands or kiss when greeting and not to share food, glasses or cutlery for fear of contracting the flu.

For more information on Swine Flu visit this CDC page

H5N1 Genetic Diversity In Asian Chickens Surprises and Worries Team of Scientists

A team of Vietnamese and US scientists discovered that chickens seized at Vietnam's border with China in 2008 had a surprisingly diverse genetic make up of the H5N1 Virus.

Here is more detail directly from CIDRAP:

Apr 14, 2009 (CIDRAP News) – H5N1 influenza viruses found in chickens seized at Vietnam's border with China in 2008 show a surprising level of genetic diversity, suggesting that the viruses are evolving rapidly and raising questions about disease surveillance and the effectiveness of prepandemic H5N1 vaccines, according to a team of Vietnamese and US scientists.

The findings suggest that the subgroup of viruses identified in the study has been circulating in the region either undetected or unreported for a "considerable amount of time," the report says. The viruses are in clade 7, a group that has not been found in an outbreak since one in China's Shanxi province in 2006.

Also, given the degree of difference between these clade 7 viruses and those used to make human H5N1 vaccines, "it is unclear whether or not humoral antibodies elicited by current vaccine candidates will have cross-neutralization activity against the new viruses," says the report, published recently in Virology.

The study was conducted by scientists from Vietnam's National Center for Veterinary Diagnostics in Hanoi and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with the CDC's Ruben O. Donis as the senior author.

Vietnam bans the importation of poultry from H5N1-infected countries. The viruses analyzed in the study came from imported illegal chickens seized at border control stations in Vietnam's Lang Son province, on the Chinese border. Authorities confiscated 495 chickens at the border stations in the first 5 months of 2008 and tested them for avian flu. Fifteen birds were found infected with H5N1 virus, and two others had an H9N2 virus.

The authors extracted RNA from the 15 H5N1 isolates, amplified it, and analyzed the sequence of the hemagglutinin (HA) genes. They found that all 15 HA genes fit within a subgroup of previously identified clade 7 viruses. They determined that 13 of the 15 HA genes fell into two further subgroups, which they labeled A and B.

The isolates within groups A and B were very closely related, but the groups differed considerably from each other, with an average divergence of 4.05% in HA nucleotide sequences and 5.69% in amino acid sequences, the report says. The authors also determined that the isolates differed by an average of 3.67% and 5.81% from the most closely related previous clade 7 isolate, which came from a chicken in China's Shanxi province in 2006.

In comparing the viruses with representatives of other H5N1 clades, the investigators found they were most closely related a clade 4 virus (a 2006 isolate from Guiyang province of China) and most distantly related to a clade 1 virus, a 2004 isolate from Vietnam. The respective differences in amino acid sequences were 8.20% and 9.07%.

The genetic distance between the HAs of these clade 7 viruses and the isolates used to make prepandemic vaccines raises doubt as to whether antibodies generated by the vaccines would react with the clade 7 viruses, the authors write. They say the viruses used in the vaccines represent clade 1 (from Vietnam, 2004), clade 2.1.3 (Indonesia, 2005), clade 2.2 (Qinghai province, China, 2005), and clade 2.3.4 (Anhui province, China, 2005).

The authors used ferret serum samples to test whether antibodies generated against five of the clade 7 viruses would cross-react with viruses from other clades and vice versa. Using hemagglutination inhibition assays, they found that samples (antisera) with antibodies against clades 1 and 2.3.4 did not cross-react with a clade 7 virus, and antisera against that same clade 7 virus did not react with clade 1 and clade 2.3.4 viruses. Also, antisera to the clade 7 virus showed limited cross-reactivity with each of four other clade 7 isolates, suggesting "some, albeit minimal" antigenic similarity among the viruses.

The authors write that the identification of two distinct subgroups (groups A and B) of clade 7 viruses "may suggest that these viruses originated from two distinct regions or host populations isolated from each other."

They say the isolates they analyzed were remarkably diverse, given that other studies of H5N1 viruses in a single clade have shown a nucleotide divergence of no more than 1.5%. They also observe, "The high degree of genetic divergence from previously identified clade 7 viruses also indicates that this subgroup of viruses has likely been circulating undetected or unreported for a considerable amount of time as poultry outbreaks caused by clade 7 H5N1 viruses were last reported in Shanxi province, China in 2006."

The findings point up the need for border controls and strong virologic surveillance to detect and prevent the spread of "exotic" H5N1 viruses from country to country, the authors conclude.

Dr. Les Sims of Australia's Asia-Pacific Veterinary Information Services called the study "an important piece of work" that offers another sign of gaps in avian flu surveillance systems in Asia.

"Unexplained gaps in the evolution of H5N1 virus HA genes suggest that surveillance systems have not been able to detect all cases of infection," Sims, who is a consultant to the United National Food and Agriculture Organization, told CIDRAP News by e-mail.

Other signs of holes in surveillance efforts include the detection of H5N1 virus in humans before finding it in nearby poultry, finding the virus in intermittent testing in poultry markets, and infected dead poultry washing up on Hong Kong's beaches, Sims said.

Clade 7 viruses have been found in various places in China, including Shanxi, Yunnan, and Hebei provinces, he reported, adding, "One of the recent human cases in Jiangsu was apparently due to a clade 7 virus, based on newspaper reports."

"The antigenic variation is not surprising given that clade 7 viruses have been shown to be antigenic variants previously," Sims said. But the findings from the ferret sera should be tested further with challenge trials in poultry vaccinated with existing vaccines, he added.

The difference between a 2006 clade 7 virus found in China—cited in the study as the closest previously identified relative of the viruses the authors analyzed—and existing vaccine antigens "led to the incorporation of a new antigen into some Chinese poultry vaccines," he said. "These vaccines containing a clade 7 antigen have been used extensively in China." He added that there have been no reports of vaccine failures in Vietnam resulting from antigenic variants.

Sims said the antigenic changes in the clade 7 virus might potentially have been spurred by poultry vaccination efforts. "We need to balance measures to reduce the amount of circulating virus, which vaccination of poultry can do, against the potential 'harm' that might occur if antigenic variants emerge," he stated. "We should expect antigenic variants to emerge and ensure that appropriate measures are in place to detect these at an early stage."

Nguyen T, Davis CT, Stembridge W, et al. Characterization of a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus sublineage in poultry seized at ports of entry into Vietnam. Virology 2009 (early online publication) [Abstract]

This finding further illustrates the importance for pandemic planning, the likely hood of such a thing happening in our lifetime is increasing.

Disaster Tip of The Week: Keep An Emergency Kit In Your Car

You never know exactly when a disaster or emergency may strike, especially out here in earthquake country where I am. So, it is important that you have enough supplies in case your car breaks down, you have to wait for someone else to come along or if you have to walk to safety.

In addition to the more common items like jumper cables, or emergency car starter, and work gloves be sure that you carry some of the following items.

• Flashlight, with extra batteries ( or one that requires no batteries)
• A multi-tool
• Duct tape
• Whistle
• Thermal Blankets-at least two
• A wool blanket
• Ponchos with hoods
• A couple (at least two) Body warmers (provides instant heat)
• Water proof matches
• A candle (preferably a long lasting survival type)
• 3 days worth of water (aqua blox)
• 3 days worth of survival food bars (You can use power bars as well, just be sure to check expiration dates)

You'll especially want the food if you need to walk to safety or to your home. In the case of an earthquake with major infrastructure damage you'll most likely have to walk for several miles to reach home.

If you are stranded in the middle of no where it is best to stay with the car and wait for help. If you need to leave the car for safety reasons, stay on the road at all times, you will be more likely to get help and be spotted by someone.